“How We Make Religious and other Crucial Life Decisions”

In last week’s blog article, we saw that in the areas of scientific, legal, historical, and religious truth we depend on evidence and probability to determine the highest level of certainty attainable—and thus what we consider conclusive truth in these areas of knowledge. In other words, because we can go no higher in terms of demonstrable proof, we consider the conclusions of evidence and probability as equivalent to absolute certainty in areas of knowledge outside mathematical truth and formal logic. The fact is most of the decisions we make in life depend exclusively on evidence and probability. This concept is so important to apologetic evangelism that I want to drive it home with another illustration.

There are three criteria by which we can make decisions: (1) absolute certainty, (2) possibility, or (3) probability. Let’s look at absolute certainty first.

We have already seen that nothing except the conclusions of mathematics and formal logic—where the outcome is axiomatic or self-evident in holding with the premises—results in absolute certainty. In every other area, truth is based on information short of absolute certainty. If we set out to make everyday decisions based solely on absolute certainty, we would never make any decisions, other than, for example, balancing our checkbook, concluding that all husbands are married, triangles are three-sided, and right cannot also be wrong.

If I refuse to buy a car unless I’m absolutely certain it will not break down the moment I drive it off the lot, I would never buy a car. Unless everyone in the jury witnessed a crime, no one would ever be convicted. Likewise, in the spiritual arena, if I refuse to believe in God unless I saw Him, I will never believe in God. Absolute certainty must be ruled out as a means for making life’s decisions—including religious ones.

Now let’s look at possibility. Do we normally make decisions—especially one of grave importance such as religious matters—based on their possibility? If I pick up a rattlesnake, there is a possibility it won’t bite me. But just knowing this is possible does not encourage me to play with rattlesnakes. It’s possible that bloodletting may cure a potentially terminal disease, but wise people seek medical attention. It’s possible the Greek god Zeus exists even though there is no evidence for it. I think you get the message. We don’t make life’s decisions based on their possible outcome. Rather we seek truth based on the third alternative: probability. We make the majority of life’s decisions on their probable outcome.

Let’s say you are driving on the freeway through downtown Los Angeles at five o’clock on Friday afternoon. Everyone is rushing to get home, and the freeway is packed. Suddenly you run out of gas and are forced to pull over to the center divide. Across the freeway is an off-ramp leading to a service station. You think to yourself, If I get down in a sprinter’s stance, close my eyes, and go for it, I may make it across the four lanes of freeway and survive to get gas! There is that possibility, but would you attempt it? Not if you’re in your right mind.

Let’s change the scene. This time you are in a country village with only one main road. It’s three in the morning and not a single car is in sight. You run out of gas and see a twenty-four hour service station across the street. But you are an unusually cautious person (more accurately, an unusual person) and will not make any decision unless you have absolute certainty of the outcome. In this case, you want to be absolutely certain that you will not be killed crossing the empty street. Would you cross? The answer has to be no! Why? Because there is always the possibility that at the very moment you step into the street, a meteorite plunging to earth will crash in the exact spot you are crossing.

This may sound far-fetched, but I’m sure you see my point. Regardless of how unlikely it is that a meteorite will strike you, nevertheless, there is the remote possibility that it may. (Believe it or not, there is at least one documented case of this actually happening).

In both of the above scenarios, there is an overwhelming probability of the outcome of your choices. In the first case, you will probably be flattened if you blindly dash across an L.A. freeway at five o’clock on a Friday afternoon. On the other hand, it is extremely unlikely that a meteorite will strike you anywhere on earth at any time.

By necessity, we make everyday decision based on probability, not on absolute certainty nor on possibility. In the real world, probability guides us to truth in most areas of knowledge.

If we apply this principle to religious truth and use the same criteria for determining religious truth that we use to determine truth in non-religious areas, we can prove the authenticity of Christianity. To demonstrate this, in the following four or five blog articles, we will examine three areas of knowledge in which we depend entirely on probability in order to determine truth (scientific, legal, and historical). I’ll then apply them to the question of religious truth. ©